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House Prices

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Click here for Gwilym Pryce's contact details.

Listed below are news articles, presentations, research publications, working papers and reports on housing and related issues that you can download. For a full list of Gwilym's publications click here.



Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change - Prof Gwilym Pryce, presentation delivered as part of the Paying for Welfare lecture series, 14 Nov 2007.

Do Estate Agents Influence the Market? - Prof Gwilym Pryce, presentation to the National Association of Estate Agents, 22 March 2006.

Can we Trust UK House Price Indices? A Detox Programme for the Index Addicted - Prof Gwilym Pryce, University of Glasgow Newsletter, 272, 27 January 2006.

Which House Price? Finding the Right Measure of House Price Inflation for Housing Policy - Summary, ODPM New Horizons Research Summary Number 3: April 2006, ISBN: 05 ASD 03771/c. Click here to download the summary.

Why are house prices so high and does it matter? - Prof Gwilym Pryce, guest lecture, 10 March 2006.

Prospects for Sub-Regional Housing Market Inequalities - Prof Gwilym Pryce, Department of Urban Studies Symposium on Housing Inequality and Segregation: Existing Problems and Future Prospects" (2006). Click here for a copy of the conference schedule.



Scottish Housing Economics and Finance Research Network:

This exciting new research network seeks to bring together academics and practitioners with an interest in Scottish housing. Click here to find out more.



Mason & Pryce (forthcoming in Housing Studies 2011): sample selection bias in house prices (click here).

Pryce, G. (2010) Defining housing submarkets (Click here).

       This paper aims to stimulate a step-change in how and why submarkets are analysed. Recent work on submarkets has focussed on their potential for improving prediction accuracy but there is more to submarkets than regression refinement. Submarkets are important because they reflect how housing markets respond to, and interact with, social and spatial processes at the local level. The paper attempts to establish a set of criteria that submarket methodologies should meet in order to investigate the nature and meaning of submarkets in a more robust and purposeful way. Existing approaches are critically evaluated using these criteria, and an alternative methodology is proposed, grounded in the notion of submarkets as a function of substitutability, with a view to helping researchers address a richer set of questions regarding housing submarkets. The approach is illustrated using data on Glasgow.

Levin, E. & Pryce, G. (2007) Explaining Extreme Bids (Click here).

       This paper proposes a simple statistical explanation for the phenomenon of extreme bids. During a boom, the housing market regime switches from a single bidder to a multiple bidder environment. The sale price in a multiple bidder auction is the maximum bid and the distribution of maximum bids contains a much higher proportion of extreme bids compared with the distribution of single bidder valuations. While this theory does not preclude behavioural explanations of extreme bids, it does demonstrate that a world free from strategic and idiosyncratic behaviour would not be a world free from extreme bids during boom periods. Therefore, when gauging the impact of strategic or idiosyncratic behaviour (either hypothetically or empirically) one has to measure the effect against a baseline regime where extreme bids are inevitable, not against a world that is free from extreme bids.

Levin, E. and Pryce, G. (2011) “Mark to market” and Bank valuation of collateral, and the need to for “equilibrium house price” estimates (click here)

       A theoretical model is developed of house market disequilibrium. Price and quantity
adjustments occur as the consequence of inventory adjustment in the absence of a
market-maker. This approach reveals a process of dynamic adjustment whereby sellers alter their reservation prices in response to implicit time on the market as a signal of excess demand. Unobservable equilibrium house prices are estimated using time on the market and house price data for Glasgow between 1999 and 2007. Empirical estimation models sellers’ reservation price response to the overhang of unsold houses and the excess demand curve within an econometric framework.

Pryce, G. (2011) Bidding Conventions and the Degree of Over-pricing in the Market for Houses, Urban Studies, 48(4), 765-791. (Click here)

       How do buyers decide whether a property is overpriced? Do they base their judgement on the simple difference between the asking price and expected selling price? Or do they take into account local bidding conventions—the typical asking–selling price spread in the neighbourhood? This paper explores the implications of bidding conventions for the definition and measurement of the degree of overpricing and the effect this has on a survival model of time on the market. The paper also considers the impact of uncertainty and employs fractional polynomial regression to explore whether spatio-temporal variations in attribute prices affect market perceptions of overpricing.

Pryce, G. and Gibb, K. (2006) How housing liquidity varies over the market cycle and across submarkets (Click here).


Pryce, G. and Evans, G. (2006 forthcoming) Identifying Submarkets in England, London: Office of the Deputy Prime Minister

Levin, E. and Pryce, G. (2006) Are Extreme Bids Inevitable? The Tale of Three Distributions. Click here to download.

Pryce, G. and Mason, P. (2006) 'Controlling for Transactions Bias in Regional House Price Indices', Columbus, Ohio Conference paper, July 2006. Click here to open. Click here for the Powerpoint presentation and here for pdf version of the presentation.

ODPM (2006) Which House Price? Finding the Right Measure of House Price Inflation for Housing Policy - Summary, New Horizons Research Summary Number 3: April 2006, ISBN: 05 ASD 03771/c. Click here to download the summary.

Pryce, G. and Mason, P. (2006) Which House Price? Finding the Right Measure of House Price Inflation for Housing Policy - Technical Report, Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, ISBN: 05 ASD 03771/a. Click here to download the report.

Pryce, G. and Mason, P. (2006) Which House Price? Finding the Right Measure of House Price Inflation for Housing Policy - Policy Implications Report, Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, ISBN: 05 ASD 03771/b. Click here to download.

Pryce, G. (2006) 'Can we Trust UK House Price Indices? A Detox Programme for the Index Addicted', University of Glasgow Newsletter, 272, 27 January 2006. Click here to open. 

Pryce, G. (2006) ‘House Prices and Time-to-Sale in the West of Scotland’, Housing Market Commentary No. 5, January 2006. Click here to open.

Pryce, G. (2006) 'Correcting for Sample Selection Bias in UK House Price Indices: A Duration Model Approach', Working Paper as at 17th June 2005. Click here to open.

Pryce, G. (2005) ‘Analysis of the latest GSPC House Sales Data’, Housing Market Commentary, No.4, Nov 2005. Click hereto open.

Pryce, G. (2005) 'Time-to-Sale Falls for the First Time in Twelve Months', Housing Market Commentary No. 3, July 2005. Click here to open.

Pryce, G. (2005)  'Strathclyde House Price Increases Still well above the Rate of Inflation', Housing Market Commentary No. 2, April 2005. Click here to open.

Pryce, G. (2004) 'House Prices in the West of Scotland: Analysis of the latest GSPC House Sales Data', Housing Market Commentary No. 1, December 2004. Click here to open.



Pryce, G., 'Cycles in the Price Elasticity of Demand for Housing', Ecofin Discussion Paper, Department of Urban Studies, October 2000. Click here to open.



Levin, E. and Pryce. G. (2006) Price Elasticity of Supply and Long Term Interest Rates. Click here to download.

Pryce, G., The Micro and Macro Effects of the Location of New Housing Supply: Final Report for the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, 10th August 2004. Click here to open.

Pryce, G., The Micro and Macro Effects of the Location of New Housing Supply: Interim Technical Report for the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, March 2004. Click here to open.

Pryce, G., Greening by the market? Distortions caused by fiscal incentives to build on brownfield land, August 2002. Click here to open.

Pryce, G., A Methodology for Calculating the Stock-Transfer Price Elasticity of Supply with an Application to the English Private Rented Sector, December 1999. Click here to open.

Pryce, G., Construction Elasticities and Land Availability: A Two Stage Least Squares Model of Housing Supply Using the Variable Elasticity Approach, November 1998. Click here to open.




Bowie-Cairns, H. and Pryce, G. (2005) 'Trends in mortgage borrowers' repayment difficulties', Housing Finance, July, pp. 1-12.  Click here to download.

Bowie-Cairns, H. and Pryce, G., Analysis of Mortgage Arrears using the BHPS, Working Paper as at 28th June 2005. Click here to open.

Hendershott, P. and Pryce, G. (2006) The Sensitivity of Homeowner Leverage to the Deductibility of Home Mortgage Interest, Journal of Urban Economics 60 (1): 50-68. Click here to download.

Bowie-Cairns, H., and Pryce, G., A Critical Review of the UK Mortgage Default Literature: Current Knowledge and Future Directions, Draft as at February 2005. Click here to open.

Cameron, J., Pryce, G., and White, M., Modelling Scottish House Possessions, October 2004. Click here to open. Click here to open.

Pryce, G., Worst of the Good and Best of the Bad: Adverse Selection Consequences of Risk Pricing, July 2003 (non-mathematical). Click here to open.

Pryce, G., Worst of the Good and Best of the Bad: Adverse Selection Consequences of Risk Pricing, April 2002 (math version). Click here to open.

Kemp, P.A., and Pryce, G., Evaluating the Mortgage Safety Net, March 2002. Click here to open.

Pryce, G., Theory and Estimation of the Mortgage Payment Protection Insurance Decision, July 2001. Click here to open.

Keoghan, M. and Pryce, G., Unemployment Insurance for Mortgage Borrowers: Is it viable and does it cover those most in need?, January 2001. Click here to open.

Keoghan, M. and Pryce, G., Determinants of MPPI Take-up, October 1999. Click here to open.




3D house price surface for Glasgow (view from the east). Click here to see full colour image.

Check out the new dedicated subarkets website currently under development: www.housingsubmarkets.com


Oates, S. and Pryce, G. (2007) Pathos and Patter in Real Estate Parlance, SHEFRN Discussion Paper. Click here to download.

Pryce, G. and Evans, G. (2007) Identifying Submarkets at the Sub-Regional Level in England, Department of Communities and Local Government: London. Click here to download.

Pryce, G. and Brown, S. (2007) Is it possible to identify housing sub-markets? Testing a new approach, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, Findings in Built and Rural Environment, June 2007, London.  Click here to download.

Pryce, G. and Gibb, K. (2006) Submarket Dynamics of Time to Sale, Real Estate Economics, Vol. 34(3), 377-415. Click here to download.

Pryce, G., The Micro and Macro Effects of the Location of New Housing Supply: Final Report for the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, 10th August 2004. Click here to open.

Pryce, G., The Micro and Macro Effects of the Location of New Housing Supply: Interim Technical Report for the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, March 2004. Click here to open.



Oates, S. and Pryce, G. (2007) Pathos and Patter in Real Estate Parlance, SHEFRN Discussion Paper. Click here to download.

Pryce, G. and Gibb, K. (2006) Submarket Dynamics of Time to Sale, Real Estate Economics, Vol. 34(3), 377-415. Click here to download.

Levin, E. and Pryce, G. (2006) Are Extreme Bids Inevitable? The Tale of Three Distributions. Click here to download.

Pryce, G. (2004) ‘Measuring the Degree of Overpricing in a Sealed-Bid System’, Conference Paper, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association International Conference, Fredericton, Canada, 31st July 2004. Click here to download.




  • L1: Why architects need to listen to Economists (...& visa versa)
  • L2: Invisible Hand or the Emperor’s New Clothes?
  • L3: Why Karl Marx was an Economist.
  • L4: Workers of all nations Unite! Or maybe not...

Reading:




datazone distance matrix (for datazones < 30km from Glasgow CBD) 3dec08





Click here for Gwilym Pryce's contact details.

Go to www.geebeejey.co.uk to order Inference and Statistics in SPSS by Gwilym Pryce (GeeBeeJey Publishing).

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